Tuesday 16 August 2011

Will the riots mean more cuts and job losses?

There are many perspectives, opinions and commentaries on the riots. From the most obvious ones like, ‘This is appalling/unacceptable”. Thank you for that commentary, air wasters! 



Then there is the really crazy almost racist undertones in some analysis: A historian claims it’s due to an every increasing presence of black culture, and that white people acting black has led to these riots. (SOURCE) Upon initially hearing of this I maybe agreed with him, until I ate some food, thought about what he was saying and used that thing called a brain! Idiot! For a historian he seemed to have a skewed view of historical events. I’ve not got a PhD and I am not a genius, but let’s assume I was a historian, and I wanted to make such a claim. I would go look up riots in the annals of history starting with the largest most crazy ones, and I would probably find that the biggest most ‘impressive’ riots must therefore have been largely influenced by some sort of black cultural influence right?? Well lets see…The deadliest riot in the world ever has been the Nika riots, where 30,000 people were killed in Turkey (SOURCE), and this was not influenced in any way shape or form by any kind of ‘black-ness’ or black culture! Racist historians trying to be sociological commentators go back to the library!

So, stupid people aside, right and left wing peeps have had different perspectives on the causes of the riots, and whilst I lean to the left, I understand some of the right’s ideas on this. Yet I was unable to articulate my arguments in a coherent, persuasive manner because I could see the potential counter-arguments and I felt they had some claim. Then I saw this:

Highest estimated cost of riots: £100m
Tax avoidance by Vodafone: £6 billion
Tax spent on Libyan intervention: £1 billion
Tax avoidance in 2010 by richest people in the UK: £7 bllion
Tax payers bill for banking crisis: £131 billion
Tax money spent in Iraqi conflict: £4.5 billion
Tax money spent on Afghan conflict (up until 2007): £7 billion
Total MP expenses bill (2007) £87.6m
(Thank you Steph for the above)

And I focused less on causes but instead on effects. Purely from a monetary perspective, the riots have not had a huge economic effect. This led my brain to start spinning and this is my estimated outcome considering some of the various factors:
  1. The cost of these riots is miniscule and the majority of the effect on Cameron being re-elected will be the sociological effect his has on the populace, not the cost to the bottom line of the already fledgling UK economy.
  2. Mr.Cameron wants to be re-elected. If he can come down strong on the rioters (which the Magistrates are doing and the authorisation to use water cannons) he will seem like a strong leader who understands the anger people are feeling.
  3. The masses are disgusted at the rioters and feel angry at their actions. Hence explainable reasons like cuts whilst in my opinion definite starting blocks for the cause, people will not want to make these actions excusable, and will therefore try to steer away from this viewpoint.
  4. The cuts seem to have started and has resulted in a drop in popularity for the Conservative party. (SOURCE)
  5. The politician’s on both sides (Labour and Conservative) are holding a unified position due to point 3.

These 5 points lead me to the conclusion that this may in fact help Cameron continue to push through the cuts whilst maintaining a strong position in the majority of voter’s eyes. This will not be for his economic rhetoric, which is arguably losing him the vote, but the more right wing ideology on crime and punishment, that we will come to see. I believe that the riots may work against  their intentions (sic) and help Cameron push higher in the polls, if like I imagine he goes in 'hard' on the rioters.

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